BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.47–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.451.3
20260.870.451.3
20270.870.461.3
20280.880.461.3
20290.880.471.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wray GulchCOLORADO182023
ShivwitzUTAH182017
AngoraCOLORADO152024
Baxter PassCOLORADO122024
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO102012
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO92024
Glen CanyonUTAH92024
House RockARIZONA72022
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO72024
Willow CreekUTAH62024
Alton 2UTAH62024
Black MesaARIZONA51995
DinosaurCOLORADO52024
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO52024
TsaileARIZONA42023
Douglas PassCOLORADO42024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO42019
HannaUTAH42024
Arches NpUTAH42010
CanyonlandsUTAH42006
HuntARIZONA31976
Wilson CreekCOLORADO32019
NuclaCOLORADO32024
La PlataNEW-MEXICO32011
Cane Spr DesUTAH31993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.