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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.46–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 34% by 2030 — from 0.65 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.46–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.850.441.3
20270.860.441.3
20280.860.451.3
20290.870.451.3
20300.870.461.3

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShivwitzUTAH182017
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO142025
Baxter PassCOLORADO122024
Glen CanyonUTAH112025
Mt. TaylorNEW-MEXICO102012
FayetteUTAH92025
RosevaleCOLORADO82025
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO82025
House RockARIZONA72022
AngoraCOLORADO72025
MonticelloUTAH72025
Wray GulchCOLORADO62025
Willow CreekUTAH62024
Black MesaARIZONA51995
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO52024
TsaileARIZONA42023
Douglas PassCOLORADO42024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO42019
DinosaurCOLORADO42025
HannaUTAH42024
Arches NpUTAH42010
CanyonlandsUTAH42006
HuntARIZONA31976
Wilson CreekCOLORADO32019
NuclaCOLORADO32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.