BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Gray Warbler In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+311%Since 1971
30Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Gray Warbler has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 311% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 68% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.0–7.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2029
5.4Projected 2029 index
3.0–7.995% range
±30.7%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.22.87.7
20265.32.87.7
20275.32.97.8
20285.42.97.8
20295.43.07.9

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Black-throated Gray Warbler in Sierra Nevada.
Forest HillCALIFORNIA392022
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA332005
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA222024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA112013
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA112014
StrawberryCALIFORNIA102019
RivertonCALIFORNIA92023
GeneseeCALIFORNIA82024
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA62009
WestvilleCALIFORNIA52024
DardanelleCALIFORNIA52019
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA52024
LumberyardCALIFORNIA42024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA42024
DownievilleCALIFORNIA42024
SattleyCALIFORNIA31996
WawonaCALIFORNIA32024
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32018
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA22018
Kings CanyonCALIFORNIA22024
PaxtonCALIFORNIA22024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA12024
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA11974
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA12023
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA11988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.