BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Blue Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 799% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+799%Since 1968
183Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Blue Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 799% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.3–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029
1.6Projected 2029 index
1.3–1.995% range
±13.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.51.21.8
20261.51.21.8
20271.51.21.8
20281.61.31.9
20291.61.31.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA342024
N. Mills RivNORTH-CAROLINA251995
Newfound GapTENNESSEE222024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA212018
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA192024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA162024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA162024
OdinPENNSYLVANIA142024
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA132002
BowdenWEST-VIRGINIA132024
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA132024
Iron Mountain 2VIRGINIA122013
Iron Mountain 3VIRGINIA122023
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA112024
AndrewsNORTH-CAROLINA101998
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA102024
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA92024
Sproul Sf-APENNSYLVANIA92024
McfarlandTENNESSEE91986
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA92011
Mill RunPENNSYLVANIA82024
Sproul Sf-BPENNSYLVANIA82024
CullowheeNORTH-CAROLINA62024
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.