BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Blue Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+134%Since 1968
155Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Blue Warbler has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 134% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.6–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029
3.8Projected 2029 index
2.6–4.995% range
±49.4%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.62.54.8
20263.72.54.8
20273.72.64.8
20283.72.64.9
20293.82.64.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS222016
CharlestonMAINE202019
Horse MtnMAINE162011
InletNEW-YORK142017
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK132010
Horseshoe L.NEW-YORK132017
BrooksMAINE122019
WaiteMAINE121977
Old ForgeNEW-YORK112006
HermonMAINE102019
Forest StaMAINE102000
ReedsMAINE92024
HudsonMAINE92016
SabattisNEW-YORK91983
NorthfieldMAINE81981
Carrying PlMAINE82024
Clayton LakeMAINE82008
LudlowMAINE81995
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK81975
Old Forge 2NEW-YORK82019
Underwood 2NEW-YORK82005
Seboomook LkMAINE72014
Pillsbury PdMAINE71968
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.