Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black-throated Blue Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Black-throated Blue Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-60%Since 1969
30Routes In Region
55Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Black-throated Blue Warbler has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2028
0.06Projected 2028 index
0.00–0.1895% range
±75.5%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2025 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| Colchester | VERMONT | 3 | 1991 |
| Oneida | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1992 |
| Salem | NEW-YORK | 2 | 2001 |
| Balmat | NEW-YORK | 2 | 2008 |
| North Pownal | VERMONT | 2 | 2021 |
| Shaftsbury | VERMONT | 2 | 2023 |
| Highland | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2008 |
| W Shokan | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2018 |
| Austerlitz | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1998 |
| Catskills | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1976 |
| Oriskany Fls | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2010 |
| Romulus | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1968 |
| Trumansburg | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1976 |
| Branchport | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2011 |
| Canadice L | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2019 |
| Mendon | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1991 |
| Cherry Hill | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2009 |
| Byron | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1977 |
| Pulaski | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1979 |
| Alder Creek | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1984 |
| N Wilmurt | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1998 |
| North Easton | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2007 |
| Waddington | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1998 |
| Ogdensburg | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1996 |
| Parishville | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2022 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.