BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-throated Blue Warbler In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Black-throated Blue Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 944% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+944%Since 1971
79Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-throated Blue Warbler has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 944% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-throated Blue Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.68 (95% range 0.48–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029
0.68Projected 2029 index
0.48–0.8795% range
±19.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.640.440.83
20260.650.450.84
20270.660.460.85
20280.670.470.86
20290.680.480.87

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-throated Blue Warbler in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Imp LakeMICHIGAN92019
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN82024
SidnawMICHIGAN82024
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN72010
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN62009
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN42024
Sawbill CampMINNESOTA42022
RacoMICHIGAN32024
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32024
OntonagonMICHIGAN22019
CunardMICHIGAN21986
ShingletonMICHIGAN22023
TahquamenonMICHIGAN22024
EnsignMICHIGAN22009
CromwellMINNESOTA22004
LockportMINNESOTA22024
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA22024
BemidjiMINNESOTA21980
MinongWISCONSIN21995
MontrealWISCONSIN22023
CrandonWISCONSIN22013
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN22022
FlambeauWISCONSIN22013
BerglandMICHIGAN12022
MareniscoMICHIGAN12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.