Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Tern In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie
Black Tern in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.
-37%Since 1969
22Routes In Region
26Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Black Tern in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1595% range
±115.7%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2027 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2028 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| 2029 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie
| Exline | IOWA | 8 | 2007 |
| College Spgs | IOWA | 6 | 1969 |
| Stet | MISSOURI | 5 | 1995 |
| Gretna | NEBRASKA | 5 | 2015 |
| Geneseo | ILLINOIS | 4 | 1973 |
| Desmoines | IOWA | 4 | 1968 |
| Neola | IOWA | 4 | 1978 |
| Sioux City | IOWA | 3 | 2024 |
| Rock Valley | IOWA | 3 | 1972 |
| Olsburg | KANSAS | 2 | 2007 |
| Barrington | ILLINOIS | 1 | 1967 |
| Wayne | ILLINOIS | 1 | 1987 |
| New Lenox | ILLINOIS | 1 | 1974 |
| Chandlervill | ILLINOIS | 1 | 1974 |
| Melrose | IOWA | 1 | 1989 |
| Pierson | IOWA | 1 | 2007 |
| Gaza | IOWA | 1 | 1969 |
| Lafayette | IOWA | 1 | 2003 |
| Ash Creek | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1989 |
| Lakeville | MINNESOTA | 1 | 1978 |
| Kenton | OHIO | 1 | 1981 |
| Raymond | WISCONSIN | 1 | 2003 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.