BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Black Tern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-84%Since 1969
15Routes In Region
52Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029
0.04Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7195% range
±46.8%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.070.000.73
20260.060.000.73
20270.050.000.72
20280.050.000.71
20290.040.000.71

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black Tern in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
MisslerKANSAS232003
Swan LakeNEBRASKA72022
Piester LakeNEBRASKA32018
KennedyNEBRASKA32021
BrownleeNEBRASKA22018
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA22024
NenzelNEBRASKA22019
CoatsKANSAS11997
AlbertKANSAS12021
SurpriseNEBRASKA11979
JohnstownNEBRASKA11969
TableNEBRASKA12003
GordonNEBRASKA12024
Crescent LkNEBRASKA12016
BassettNEBRASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.