BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWetland birds

Black Tern in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969
15Routes In Region
21Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2024 — from 0.22 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±322%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2024
0.00Projected 2024 index
0.00–0.4195% range
±322%Backtest error
19672024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20200.010.000.42
20210.010.000.42
20220.010.000.41
20230.000.000.41
20240.000.000.41

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black Tern in Badlands and Prairies.
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA132019
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA92009
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA72014
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA41969
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA42014
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA42015
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32019
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA31982
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA21978
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA11992
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA12019
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA11968
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA11990
PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA11995
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.