BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Tern In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Black Tern in Boreal Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969
33Routes In Region
51Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Tern has collapsed in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Tern in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1151%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.15Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.6995% range
±1151%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.170.000.70
20260.160.000.69
20270.160.000.69
20280.160.000.69
20290.150.000.69

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black Tern in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
BagleyMINNESOTA202006
GreenbushMINNESOTA162022
BackusMINNESOTA82002
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA81982
BerglandMICHIGAN61982
Land O LakesWISCONSIN61981
Pine RiverMINNESOTA42000
BenaMINNESOTA41977
BashawWISCONSIN42004
PickfordMICHIGAN31981
Union TwpWISCONSIN32006
McgregorMINNESOTA22021
BrainerdMINNESOTA22014
Cass LakeMINNESOTA21980
MinongWISCONSIN21980
PhillipsWISCONSIN21969
IrmaWISCONSIN21978
HollisterWISCONSIN21967
TahquamenonMICHIGAN11988
Seney NwrMICHIGAN12006
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA12021
BemidjiMINNESOTA11979
DebsMINNESOTA12024
BlackduckMINNESOTA12011
NebishMINNESOTA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.