BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-78%Since 1970
18Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black Skimmer has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.52 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±136.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029
0.65Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.595% range
±136.9%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.650.002.5
20260.650.002.5
20270.650.002.5
20280.650.002.5
20290.650.002.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Oyster LakeTEXAS102024
Loyola BeachTEXAS62001
CreoleLOUISIANA51980
JuniorLOUISIANA41988
Lag AtascosaTEXAS41989
Hinkles FerTEXAS41985
BaysideTEXAS42002
Bayside 2TEXAS32004
Bayside 3TEXAS32018
DanburyTEXAS22012
Grand IsleLOUISIANA12014
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA11993
IndianolaTEXAS12022
WinnieTEXAS11984
StowellTEXAS11975
ChinquapinTEXAS12024
Port AcresTEXAS12011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.