BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Black Skimmer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Skimmer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Black Skimmer In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±622.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±622.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±622.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.000.96
20260.180.000.96
20270.180.000.96
20280.180.000.95
20290.180.000.95

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black Skimmer in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlackbirdDELAWARE142023
Bethany BchDELAWARE101990
Jones BeachNEW-YORK92006
DoverDELAWARE61973
NewarkMARYLAND31969
VillasNEW-JERSEY31981
HuntingtonNEW-YORK32021
GeorgetownDELAWARE22017
HarringtonDELAWARE12014
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE11987
SinepuxentMARYLAND11978
BerlinMARYLAND11993
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY12006
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY12024
Del HavenNEW-JERSEY11991
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY12004
WesthamptonNEW-YORK12019
QuinbyVIRGINIA12024
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA12005
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.