BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Skimmer In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Skimmer has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-97%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 97% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.59
20260.020.000.59
20270.020.000.58
20280.010.000.57
20290.000.000.56

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Santa RosaFLORIDA312003
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA122023
St Vincent IFLORIDA92024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA71973
Dauphin IsALABAMA51990
St. ElmoALABAMA52021
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA52017
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA31979
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA32024
Alabama PtALABAMA21986
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA22013
DarienGEORGIA22019
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12014
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12007
Port St JoeFLORIDA11976
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11988
Alligator PtFLORIDA12023
LatimerMISSISSIPPI12013
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11974
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA12023
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA11972
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.