BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Skimmer In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-82%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black Skimmer has collapsed in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Black Skimmer In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.56). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.020.000.58
20270.010.000.57
20280.010.000.57
20290.000.000.56
20300.000.000.56

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Black Skimmer in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Santa RosaFLORIDA312003
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA122023
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA71973
Dauphin IsALABAMA51990
St. ElmoALABAMA52021
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA52017
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA31979
Alabama PtALABAMA21986
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA22013
St Vincent IFLORIDA22025
DarienGEORGIA22019
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12014
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12007
Port St JoeFLORIDA11976
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA11988
Alligator PtFLORIDA12023
LatimerMISSISSIPPI12013
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11974
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA12023
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA11972
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA12008
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.