BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Scoter In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Black Scoter in BCR 2 has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+25%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Black Scoter In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.007.1
20262.50.007.0
20272.40.007.0
20282.40.007.0
20292.40.006.9

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Black Scoter in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cold BayALASKA522024
King SalmonALASKA392017
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA211986
Selawik (Short)ALASKA91987
DillinghamALASKA71996
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA61987
Cape NomeALASKA52012
Gweek RiverALASKA42000
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA41992
Togiak RiverALASKA32005
ChiniakALASKA22010
CouncilALASKA21999
Kanektok RivALASKA12004
KotzebueALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.