BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black Scoter In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Black Scoter in BCR 2 has increased: up 46% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+46%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Black Scoter In BCR 2 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 44% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19842030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.007.3
20272.70.007.2
20282.70.007.2
20292.60.007.2
20302.60.007.2

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Black Scoter in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
King SalmonALASKA392017
Cold BayALASKA272025
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA211986
Selawik (Short)ALASKA91987
DillinghamALASKA71996
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA61987
Cape NomeALASKA52012
Gweek RiverALASKA42000
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA41992
Togiak RiverALASKA32005
ChiniakALASKA22010
CouncilALASKA21999
Kanektok RivALASKA12004
KotzebueALASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.