Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black Scoter In BCR 2

Black Scoter in BCR 2 has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+25%Since 1986
14Routes In Region
38Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in BCR 2. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.006.995% range
±61.9%Backtest error
19842029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.50.007.1
20262.50.007.0
20272.40.007.0
20282.40.007.0
20292.40.006.9

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Black Scoter in BCR 2.
Cold BayALASKA522024
King SalmonALASKA392017
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA211986
Selawik (Short)ALASKA91987
DillinghamALASKA71996
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA61987
Cape NomeALASKA52012
Gweek RiverALASKA42000
Cold Bay (Short)ALASKA41992
Togiak RiverALASKA32005
ChiniakALASKA22010
CouncilALASKA21999
Kanektok RivALASKA12004
KotzebueALASKA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.