Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Black Scoter In BCR 2
Black Scoter in BCR 2 has increased: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
+25%Since 1986
14Routes In Region
38Years
Notable Signals
No notable trend signals for Black Scoter in BCR 2. See the full index history below.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Black Scoter in BCR 2 is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-60%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.995% range
±61.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 7.1 |
| 2026 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 7.0 |
| 2027 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 7.0 |
| 2028 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 7.0 |
| 2029 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 6.9 |
Routes In BCR 2
| Cold Bay | ALASKA | 52 | 2024 |
| King Salmon | ALASKA | 39 | 2017 |
| Kotzebue (Short) | ALASKA | 21 | 1986 |
| Selawik (Short) | ALASKA | 9 | 1987 |
| Dillingham | ALASKA | 7 | 1996 |
| Kugarak (Short) | ALASKA | 6 | 1987 |
| Cape Nome | ALASKA | 5 | 2012 |
| Gweek River | ALASKA | 4 | 2000 |
| Cold Bay (Short) | ALASKA | 4 | 1992 |
| Togiak River | ALASKA | 3 | 2005 |
| Chiniak | ALASKA | 2 | 2010 |
| Council | ALASKA | 2 | 1999 |
| Kanektok Riv | ALASKA | 1 | 2004 |
| Kotzebue | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.