BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+148%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Great Basin: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Black-necked Stilt In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±395.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin is projected to rise about 66% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±395.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.004.1
20271.30.004.1
20281.30.004.1
20291.30.004.1
20301.30.004.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FallonNEVADA712018
LikelyCALIFORNIA572025
DorrisCALIFORNIA532019
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON402021
Bear RiverUTAH202025
CortezNEVADA102025
MizpahNEVADA102009
HikoNEVADA101970
GoshenUTAH102024
LynnUTAH82012
CallaoUTAH52025
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA42025
AcequiaIDAHO41991
SnowvilleUTAH42024
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA32013
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA32003
Cedar HillIDAHO32024
PrestonIDAHO32007
Blizzard GapOREGON32025
Malheur NwrOREGON31989
MerrillOREGON32022
IngallsCALIFORNIA21987
BentonCALIFORNIA22024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA22016
MacdoelCALIFORNIA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.