BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin has increased: up 36% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+36%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin is projected to rise about 291% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±496.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+291%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±496.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin is projected to rise about 291% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±496.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.004.1
20261.30.004.1
20271.30.004.1
20281.30.004.1
20291.30.004.1

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear RiverUTAH912023
FallonNEVADA712018
DorrisCALIFORNIA532019
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON402021
LikelyCALIFORNIA242024
Trout CreekOREGON162017
MizpahNEVADA102009
HikoNEVADA101970
GoshenUTAH102024
Blizzard GapOREGON82023
LynnUTAH82012
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA42023
AcequiaIDAHO41991
SnowvilleUTAH42024
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA32013
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA32003
Cedar HillIDAHO32024
PrestonIDAHO32007
Malheur NwrOREGON31989
MerrillOREGON32022
IngallsCALIFORNIA21987
BentonCALIFORNIA22024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA22016
MacdoelCALIFORNIA22019
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA22013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.