BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-necked Stilt In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+287%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-necked Stilt In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026104.616
2027104.716
2028104.816
2029115.016
2030115.116

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA452011
WinnieTEXAS382025
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS342025
CreoleLOUISIANA321987
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA272025
KaplanLOUISIANA232023
MauriceLOUISIANA192024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA172019
RichardLOUISIANA142025
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA132008
Bayside 2TEXAS122004
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA112011
EstherLOUISIANA102025
Hinkles FerTEXAS92023
IndianolaTEXAS82024
HackberryLOUISIANA62016
DanburyTEXAS62024
GlencoeLOUISIANA52018
Grand IsleLOUISIANA52018
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA52025
BaysideTEXAS52010
Bayside 3TEXAS52025
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32025
PetronilaTEXAS32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.