BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+296%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 296% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 5.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025104.716
2026104.816
2027115.016
2028115.116
2029115.216

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA452011
CreoleLOUISIANA321987
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA262024
KaplanLOUISIANA232023
WinnieTEXAS232024
EstherLOUISIANA222024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA202024
MauriceLOUISIANA192024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA172019
KatyTEXAS172024
ChinquapinTEXAS162024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA132008
Bayside 2TEXAS122004
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA112011
Hinkles FerTEXAS92023
RichardLOUISIANA82024
IndianolaTEXAS82024
HackberryLOUISIANA62016
DanburyTEXAS62024
GlencoeLOUISIANA52018
Grand IsleLOUISIANA52018
StowellTEXAS52022
BaysideTEXAS52010
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA42019
Bayside 3TEXAS42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.