BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+109%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±185.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±185.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.003.2
20260.880.003.2
20270.880.003.2
20280.880.003.2
20290.880.003.2

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS102024
Encinal 2TEXAS82015
KingsvilleTEXAS42019
Millett 2TEXAS42021
ProgresoTEXAS32011
CatarinaTEXAS21989
SejitaTEXAS22010
HeidelbergTEXAS22024
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS22013
EncinalTEXAS11989
San YgnacioTEXAS11967
George WestTEXAS12015
Catarina 2TEXAS12017
LaredoTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.