BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-77%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has collapsed in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 78% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±333.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-78%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±333.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.0013
20260.630.0013
20270.450.0013
20280.260.0013
20290.080.0013

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrawleyCALIFORNIA82010
VicksburgARIZONA61989
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA62024
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA41987
NilandCALIFORNIA32024
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA31994
Ash MeadowsNEVADA32023
DatelandARIZONA22013
Cibola LakeARIZONA22012
Palo VerdeARIZONA22013
Cactus ForestARIZONA22024
Hope 2ARIZONA22014
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA22004
Silver PeakNEVADA21968
LagunaARIZONA12022
AjoARIZONA12007
CoolidgeARIZONA11979
ArabyARIZONA12023
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA11977
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.