BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1998.

-35%Since 1998TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-necked Stilt in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.21
20260.050.000.21
20270.050.000.21
20280.050.000.20
20290.050.000.20

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarringtonDELAWARE42024
BlackbirdDELAWARE12024
GeorgetownDELAWARE12022
HongaMARYLAND12003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.