BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-necked Stilt In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyShorebirds

Black-necked Stilt in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+596%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-necked Stilt has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 596% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.60–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-necked Stilt in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.60–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.461.8
20261.20.501.8
20271.20.531.9
20281.20.571.9
20291.30.601.9

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black-necked Stilt in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HarrisburgARKANSAS82019
DellARKANSAS72024
KeystoneLOUISIANA72003
KelsoARKANSAS62010
RamahLOUISIANA62024
BelairLOUISIANA62016
Rayville 2LOUISIANA62023
AugustaARKANSAS51994
South BendARKANSAS42010
MaynardARKANSAS42022
MayflowerLOUISIANA42005
BerwickLOUISIANA41999
Port AllenLOUISIANA32024
River RoadLOUISIANA32008
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32018
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI32024
EudoraARKANSAS22009
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
UlmARKANSAS22018
ShawLOUISIANA22000
BrousvilleLOUISIANA22018
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA22011
ConcordLOUISIANA22017
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22008
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.