BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-2%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
129Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black-headed Grosbeak In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.4–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 11 (95% range 8.4–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025118.413
2026118.413
2027118.413
2028118.413
2029118.413

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA672019
LoraneOREGON542024
RuchOREGON512023
Secret ValOREGON372022
Mendota 2WASHINGTON372000
Pe EllWASHINGTON342023
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA322017
CougarWASHINGTON322023
Mendota 3WASHINGTON322024
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA302016
Days CreekOREGON302024
Sams ValleyOREGON302024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA292023
EverettWASHINGTON282024
ProspectOREGON272024
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA262022
SelmaOREGON262024
HullvilleCALIFORNIA252019
OrleansCALIFORNIA252012
Warm BeachWASHINGTON252017
MukilteoWASHINGTON252024
Harlan 2OREGON242024
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA232014
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA232017
GarfieldOREGON232023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.