BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-headed Grosbeak In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black-headed Grosbeak In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 8.6–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026118.513
2027118.514
2028118.614
2029118.614
2030118.614

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA672019
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA522025
Secret ValOREGON422025
Harlan 2OREGON402025
Mendota 2WASHINGTON372000
ScappooseOREGON352025
Days CreekOREGON342025
RuchOREGON332025
Mendota 3WASHINGTON332025
CecilvilleCALIFORNIA322017
LoraneOREGON322025
CougarWASHINGTON322023
ProspectOREGON312025
Burnt RanchCALIFORNIA302016
Sams ValleyOREGON302025
LongvaleCALIFORNIA292023
GarfieldOREGON292025
SelmaOREGON292025
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA262022
SaladoOREGON262025
MukilteoWASHINGTON262025
HullvilleCALIFORNIA252019
OrleansCALIFORNIA252012
Warm BeachWASHINGTON252017
KamilcheWASHINGTON242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.