BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+123%Since 1970
26Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 123% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.67–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029
1.9Projected 2029 index
0.67–3.295% range
±25.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.80.593.1
20261.90.613.1
20271.90.633.1
20281.90.653.2
20291.90.673.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Chihuahuan Desert.
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO552024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO52017
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO42000
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32024
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO32018
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32024
ValentineTEXAS31987
Bear MtnTEXAS32024
DemingNEW-MEXICO21974
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22007
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
Salt FlatTEXAS22006
Chisos BasinTEXAS22023
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO11974
RoswellNEW-MEXICO11975
GageNEW-MEXICO11969
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12022
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12024
QueenNEW-MEXICO12018
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO12016
Hot SpringsTEXAS11997
LongfellowTEXAS12022
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024
Sierra BlancTEXAS12002

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.