BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-36%Since 1971
18Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Black-headed Grosbeak in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029
0.14Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.4495% range
±106.1%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.160.000.45
20260.150.000.45
20270.150.000.45
20280.150.000.44
20290.140.000.44

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
NilandCALIFORNIA42023
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA42024
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA21971
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA22000
CimaCALIFORNIA21974
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA21995
Red RockARIZONA12008
OnyxCALIFORNIA11994
BarstowCALIFORNIA11997
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12024
InyokernCALIFORNIA12007
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11982
IvanpahCALIFORNIA11996
TecopaCALIFORNIA12015
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA11976
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA11984
PearblossomCALIFORNIA12017
Lone PineCALIFORNIA12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.