BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-7%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-headed Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±153%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±153%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.140.000.29
20260.150.000.29
20270.150.000.29
20280.150.000.29
20290.150.000.30

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HendleyNEBRASKA62021
BradyNEBRASKA52024
TableNEBRASKA32015
St JohnKANSAS21989
AlbertKANSAS22008
MinneapolisKANSAS22009
LoganKANSAS21979
HolbrookNEBRASKA21990
BartleyNEBRASKA22022
CoatsKANSAS11984
ColdwaterKANSAS11974
GrayKANSAS11998
HaysKANSAS11977
LeovilleKANSAS12018
CovertKANSAS12014
PhillipsburgKANSAS12017
GoveKANSAS11990
MisslerKANSAS11980
RexfordKANSAS12023
SumnerNEBRASKA12015
StrattonNEBRASKA11991
AlmeriaNEBRASKA12011
JohnstownNEBRASKA12023
GordonNEBRASKA12016
ArthurNEBRASKA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.