BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+747%Since 1969
94Routes In Region
57Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.81–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029
1.1Projected 2029 index
0.81–1.595% range
±27.6%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.10.751.4
20261.10.771.4
20271.10.781.4
20281.10.801.4
20291.10.811.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies.
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
SavageMONTANA62019
DaytonWYOMING62024
Reed PointMONTANA52024
BrandenbergMONTANA52019
Moskee 2WYOMING52021
Moskee 3WYOMING52024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA42019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42014
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA42012
SundanceWYOMING42024
MoskeeWYOMING42001
St Xavier 2MONTANA32018
Miles CityMONTANA32024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA32004
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA32003
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32018
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32004
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22021
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22001
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA21969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.