BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+747%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 747% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-headed Grosbeak In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.81–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.81–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.69 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.81–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.751.4
20261.10.771.4
20271.10.781.4
20281.10.801.4
20291.10.811.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
SavageMONTANA62019
DaytonWYOMING62024
Reed PointMONTANA52024
BrandenbergMONTANA52019
Moskee 2WYOMING52021
Moskee 3WYOMING52024
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA42019
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA42014
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA42012
SundanceWYOMING42024
MoskeeWYOMING42001
St Xavier 2MONTANA32018
Miles CityMONTANA32024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA32024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA32004
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA32003
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA32024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA32018
Railroad ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA32004
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22021
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22001
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22024
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA21969

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.