BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Sierra Nevada has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970
39Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Black-headed Grosbeak in Sierra Nevada. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 5.7–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029
15Projected 2029 index
5.7–2495% range
±18.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025155.624
2026155.724
2027155.724
2028155.724
2029155.724

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Sierra Nevada.
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA592024
Forest HillCALIFORNIA502022
Forest Hill 2CALIFORNIA372005
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA282008
DownievilleCALIFORNIA272024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA242013
PaxtonCALIFORNIA222024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA172024
WawonaCALIFORNIA162024
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA132019
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA132024
StrawberryCALIFORNIA132019
GeneseeCALIFORNIA102024
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA102019
KernvilleCALIFORNIA102008
WestvilleCALIFORNIA72024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA72024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA62014
RivertonCALIFORNIA62023
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA52024
Tahoe NfCALIFORNIA51994
ChesterCALIFORNIA52017
ChilcootCALIFORNIA52023
Lassen ParkCALIFORNIA41989
LumberyardCALIFORNIA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.