BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-6%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 47% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 47% by 2027 — from 0.08 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.040.000.19
20240.040.000.18
20250.040.000.18
20260.040.000.18
20270.040.000.18

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA62022
CoquilleOREGON21997
HullvilleCALIFORNIA11986
Rio DellCALIFORNIA11992
NavarroCALIFORNIA11990
AlderpointCALIFORNIA11987
LaytonvilleCALIFORNIA11990
YrekaCALIFORNIA12000
Days CreekOREGON11971
Hazel CampOREGON12014
Bunker HillWASHINGTON11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.