BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+140%Since 1970
37Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.38–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.38–2.095% range
±54.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.332.0
20261.20.342.0
20271.20.352.0
20281.20.372.0
20291.20.382.0

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102021
Lag AtascosaTEXAS82023
CreoleLOUISIANA51987
Oyster LakeTEXAS52024
KaplanLOUISIANA42023
MauriceLOUISIANA32024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA32017
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21982
RichardLOUISIANA22024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA22018
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA22019
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA22011
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA22017
StowellTEXAS22010
DanburyTEXAS22019
Rock IslandTEXAS22015
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22004
JuniorLOUISIANA11991
MamouLOUISIANA11982
HackberryLOUISIANA12013
EstherLOUISIANA12024
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA12002
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12024
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12022
PetronilaTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.