BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-7%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-crowned Night Heron in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 86% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.39
20260.130.000.39
20270.130.000.39
20280.130.000.39
20290.130.000.39

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32021
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO22024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS22009
CanutilloTEXAS22022
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO12019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.