BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+94%Since 1970
32Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 207% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+207%Change by 2029
0.37Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.8295% range
±101.3%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.350.000.81
20260.360.000.81
20270.360.000.82
20280.370.000.82
20290.370.000.82

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
River RoadLOUISIANA372010
BerwickLOUISIANA62018
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA42015
ShawLOUISIANA32023
FrogmoreLOUISIANA32023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA32014
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA32022
BlodgettMISSOURI32015
HughesARKANSAS21979
Morgan CityLOUISIANA21977
LaroseLOUISIANA21990
BrousvilleLOUISIANA21999
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22023
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22024
DeventerMISSOURI21993
South BendARKANSAS11981
CarlisleLOUISIANA11988
FreetownLOUISIANA11994
KeystoneLOUISIANA12005
MayflowerLOUISIANA12017
RayvilleLOUISIANA12008
RamahLOUISIANA12024
GibsonLOUISIANA12019
BelairLOUISIANA12011
KraemerLOUISIANA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.