BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+239%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 239% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.14
20260.060.000.14
20270.060.000.15
20280.060.000.15
20290.060.000.15

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wheeler DamALABAMA72023
GeorgiaINDIANA42001
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA31975
RoyaltonILLINOIS32023
DixieKENTUCKY22002
Belotes BendTENNESSEE22004
TrianaALABAMA12004
PulaskiILLINOIS11978
BelmontINDIANA11998
CorydonINDIANA11987
EvansvilleINDIANA11972
CantonKENTUCKY12016
MillionKENTUCKY11980
GatewoodKENTUCKY11975
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY11976
MorganfieldKENTUCKY12024
Lebanon JunctionKENTUCKY12017
PulaskiMISSOURI12019
BaronOKLAHOMA11981
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.