BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-97%Since 1969
39Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 97% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±152.7%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.001.7
20260.000.001.7
20270.000.001.7
20280.000.001.7
20290.000.001.7

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
AlbertKANSAS32023
Crescent LkNEBRASKA32017
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA32011
KennedyNEBRASKA22010
MullenNEBRASKA22001
ErickOKLAHOMA21990
ChildressTEXAS22008
HackberryTEXAS21993
WellingtonKANSAS12023
DaltonKANSAS12017
St JohnKANSAS11999
CoatsKANSAS11975
ColdwaterKANSAS12004
KanopolisKANSAS11996
PhillipsburgKANSAS12007
GoveKANSAS11977
MisslerKANSAS11994
SolomonKANSAS11996
BerwetKANSAS12006
StrattonNEBRASKA12004
SurpriseNEBRASKA11993
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12021
JohnstownNEBRASKA11977
Piester LakeNEBRASKA12018
ArthurNEBRASKA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.