BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+213%Since 1978
32Routes In Region
43Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 226% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+226%Change by 2029
0.43Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.9595% range
±128.5%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.420.000.94
20260.420.000.94
20270.420.000.94
20280.430.000.95
20290.430.000.95

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie.
ClaytonvilleTEXAS282022
PantexTEXAS92024
WakaTEXAS82016
GrigstonKANSAS72008
TenmileTEXAS72019
FloydadaTEXAS62018
TwichellTEXAS62002
LeotiKANSAS52003
NeegrandeCOLORADO32018
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32004
DalhartTEXAS32006
Last ChanceCOLORADO22004
CircleTEXAS22017
TexlineTEXAS21996
Frankel CityTEXAS22009
PlainsTEXAS22017
HudsonCOLORADO12013
ArsenalCOLORADO12009
PlymellKANSAS12023
WinonaKANSAS12016
PaxtonNEBRASKA11985
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12013
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12017
HookerOKLAHOMA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.