BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-crowned Night Heron In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWetland birds

Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+213%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-crowned Night Heron has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 213% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Black-crowned Night Heron In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 226% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+226%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 226% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.420.000.94
20260.420.000.94
20270.420.000.94
20280.430.000.95
20290.430.000.95

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Black-crowned Night Heron in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ClaytonvilleTEXAS282022
PantexTEXAS92024
WakaTEXAS82016
GrigstonKANSAS72008
TenmileTEXAS72019
FloydadaTEXAS62018
TwichellTEXAS62002
LeotiKANSAS52003
NeegrandeCOLORADO32018
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32004
DalhartTEXAS32006
Last ChanceCOLORADO22004
CircleTEXAS22017
TexlineTEXAS21996
Frankel CityTEXAS22009
PlainsTEXAS22017
HudsonCOLORADO12013
ArsenalCOLORADO12009
PlymellKANSAS12023
WinonaKANSAS12016
PaxtonNEBRASKA11985
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12013
HobbsNEW-MEXICO12024
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12017
HookerOKLAHOMA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.