BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinArid-land birds

Black-chinned Sparrow in Great Basin has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+45%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Sparrow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-61%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to fall about 61% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07
20300.020.000.07

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Black-chinned Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow VallyNEVADA72025
Dobbin CreekNEVADA42014
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA11985
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA11974
WillisNEVADA12003
NewcastleUTAH12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.