BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Magpie In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Magpie has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±545.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±545.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±545.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.49
20240.000.000.49
20250.000.000.49
20260.000.000.49
20270.000.000.49

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CovertKANSAS212003
JewellKANSAS52002
AshlandKANSAS41976
HanoverKANSAS42009
Jewell 2KANSAS42012
BeloitKANSAS42000
AlbertKANSAS32000
MinneapolisKANSAS32008
GoveKANSAS32002
Ash ValleyKANSAS32003
RexfordKANSAS32000
St JohnKANSAS22006
LeovilleKANSAS22017
HollenbergKANSAS22003
DamarKANSAS22003
BartleyNEBRASKA21994
StrattonNEBRASKA21984
BartlettNEBRASKA21976
JohnstownNEBRASKA22001
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA21983
BerwynNEBRASKA21997
ColdwaterKANSAS11987
BuckeyeKANSAS12003
KanopolisKANSAS12001
GrayKANSAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.