BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-billed Magpie In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Magpie in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Magpie In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 32% by 2030 — from 2.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.90.003.8
20271.90.003.8
20281.90.003.8
20291.90.003.8
20301.90.003.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaytonWYOMING212025
HighwoodMONTANA182025
Reed PointMONTANA182025
BrandenbergMONTANA182025
Chuffey SpringMONTANA182025
Flatwillow 2MONTANA122023
WyarnoWYOMING122025
BucknumWYOMING112024
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
GlenrockWYOMING91977
St Xavier 2MONTANA72023
Cabin CreekMONTANA72025
Two DotMONTANA62025
Miles CityMONTANA62025
Winifred 2MONTANA62025
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
RecluseWYOMING62025
MayoworthWYOMING62024
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING62025
ShawmutMONTANA52025
WinifredMONTANA52023
RoundupMONTANA52023
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA52025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA52001
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA51976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.