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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-billed Magpie In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Black-billed Magpie in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 899% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+899%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-billed Magpie in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Black-billed Magpie In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+86%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Magpie in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 86% by 2030 — from 0.26 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.23–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.450.200.70
20270.460.200.71
20280.470.210.72
20290.470.220.72
20300.480.230.73

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Black-billed Magpie in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BagleyMINNESOTA132006
DebsMINNESOTA72025
LudeMINNESOTA52025
WarroadMINNESOTA52025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA42024
Little ForkMINNESOTA32024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA22024
WaskishMINNESOTA22021
BlackduckMINNESOTA22021
BackusMINNESOTA12025
FloodwoodMINNESOTA12023
CohassetMINNESOTA12022
McgregorMINNESOTA12023
GreenbushMINNESOTA12024
NebishMINNESOTA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.