BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-92%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±106.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±106.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.15
20230.020.000.15
20240.020.000.15
20250.020.000.14
20260.010.000.14

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CoatsKANSAS51984
GrayKANSAS51997
DaltonKANSAS42000
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA41999
BradyNEBRASKA32005
ChapmanKANSAS21976
AlbertKANSAS21994
BerwetKANSAS22007
GoesselKANSAS22007
KenesawNEBRASKA21979
TableNEBRASKA21980
BerwynNEBRASKA21993
ChildressTEXAS21988
WellingtonKANSAS11981
St JohnKANSAS12003
ColdwaterKANSAS11992
AshlandKANSAS12018
BuckeyeKANSAS12019
KanopolisKANSAS12016
HanoverKANSAS12009
HollenbergKANSAS12006
MinneapolisKANSAS12003
CovertKANSAS12016
JewellKANSAS12005
PhillipsburgKANSAS12001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.