BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-billed Cuckoo In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Black-billed Cuckoo in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-86%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-billed Cuckoo has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 86% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Black-billed Cuckoo In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±884.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±884.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-billed Cuckoo in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±884.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.54
20260.000.000.54
20270.000.000.54
20280.000.000.54
20290.000.000.54

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Black-billed Cuckoo in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrandenbergMONTANA81981
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA82006
Chuffey SpringMONTANA62023
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA51982
SavageMONTANA31978
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA32013
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA21998
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA22016
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA22007
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA22024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA21997
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA22011
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA21982
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA21999
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
French CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA22000
SeelyWYOMING21998
HighwoodMONTANA12012
JordanMONTANA11994
CircleMONTANA12002
FlatwillowMONTANA11989
IngomarMONTANA11978
ForsythMONTANA11991
LocateMONTANA12008
WebsterMONTANA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.