BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bicknell's Thrush In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Bicknell's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bicknell's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Bicknell's Thrush In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bicknell's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2001, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2001 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±178.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bicknell's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2001, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662001
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
19970.020.000.05
19980.020.000.05
19990.020.000.05
20000.020.000.05
20010.020.000.05

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Bicknell's Thrush in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest StaMAINE31979
South ArmMAINE21996
GreenwoodMAINE11974
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE11972
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE11978
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE11969
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.