BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+340%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
96Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 340% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bewick's Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.34–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Great Basin is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.65 (95% range 0.34–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.610.310.92
20260.620.320.92
20270.630.330.93
20280.640.340.94
20290.650.340.95

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron GateCALIFORNIA442019
Sand PassNEVADA102024
GardnervilleNEVADA102012
Modoc PointOREGON102014
Honey LakeCALIFORNIA92024
Meadow VallyNEVADA92024
Modoc Point 2OREGON62024
GiffordIDAHO52017
Rye PatchNEVADA51987
CalienteNEVADA52019
VernonUTAH52024
YakimaWASHINGTON52024
DorrisCALIFORNIA42019
MacdoelCALIFORNIA42019
BartleCALIFORNIA42019
Toiyabe NfNEVADA42003
WapatoWASHINGTON42022
NubieberCALIFORNIA32018
Big PineCALIFORNIA32023
BodieCALIFORNIA32024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA32015
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA32011
Calico SprNEVADA31969
HawthorneNEVADA32001
Wah WahUTAH32003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.