BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest has risen sharply: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has risen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bewick's Wren In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.67–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.67–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.702.6
20271.70.692.6
20281.70.682.6
20291.60.672.6
20301.60.672.6

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TualatinOREGON172025
SalemOREGON172025
MukilteoWASHINGTON142025
UmpquaOREGON122025
McchordWASHINGTON122015
Mendota 3WASHINGTON112025
EverettWASHINGTON102025
Hazel CampOREGON92022
Port AngelesWASHINGTON92025
IlwacoWASHINGTON92025
Mendota 2WASHINGTON92000
French GulchCALIFORNIA82010
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA82010
GarfieldOREGON82025
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON82025
DaytonOREGON72025
South ElmaWASHINGTON72024
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA62019
RainierWASHINGTON62025
CanbyOREGON52025
ScappooseOREGON52025
Warm BeachWASHINGTON52017
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA42025
AdairOREGON42025
GreenOREGON42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.