BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+302%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 302% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

Bewick's Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-1%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.95 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.002.2
20270.930.002.2
20280.940.002.2
20290.940.002.3
20300.950.002.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS152025
Loyola BeachTEXAS52009
San PedroTEXAS52025
McfaddinTEXAS32016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS22023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22016
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12025
PetronilaTEXAS12006
IndianolaTEXAS12005
Rock IslandTEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.