BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 78% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+78%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bewick's Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.62–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.62–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 57% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.62–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.572.6
20271.60.592.6
20281.60.602.6
20291.60.612.6
20301.60.622.6

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WikieupARIZONA352019
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA112000
OnyxCALIFORNIA82001
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA81981
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA82025
Cutter 2ARIZONA72018
PearblossomCALIFORNIA62025
Ash MeadowsNEVADA62025
Lone PineCALIFORNIA52025
DatelandARIZONA42016
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA42025
IvanpahCALIFORNIA42019
CimaCALIFORNIA42013
FlorenceARIZONA31988
DarwinCALIFORNIA31998
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA32013
Squaw PeakARIZONA21968
New RiverARIZONA22009
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22023
Red RockARIZONA22001
Cactus ForestARIZONA22023
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA22015
BeattyNEVADA22024
Jean LakeNEVADA22013
OatmanARIZONA12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.