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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bewick's Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Bewick's Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bewick's Wren In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±479.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±479.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±479.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.160.000.37
20240.160.000.37
20250.160.000.37
20260.170.000.38
20270.170.000.38

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
McalesterOKLAHOMA61990
LivingstonTEXAS62000
BlancoOKLAHOMA32016
MatoyOKLAHOMA32000
PocolaOKLAHOMA32008
PhillipsOKLAHOMA22008
IndianolaOKLAHOMA22022
SandbluffOKLAHOMA21995
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA21995
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA21995
RamseyARKANSAS11973
StampsARKANSAS12001
PoyenARKANSAS12002
Coal HillARKANSAS12001
MassardARKANSAS11973
Magazine MtnARKANSAS12015
CanadianOKLAHOMA12015
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA12002
BethelOKLAHOMA12004
New WaverlyTEXAS11987
AthensTEXAS11979
Mt. SelmanTEXAS12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.