BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bewick's Wren has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Bewick's Wren In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±411.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±411.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.09 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±411.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.46
20270.000.000.46
20280.000.000.46
20290.000.000.46
20300.000.000.46

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PetersburgTENNESSEE51970
ClementineMISSOURI42002
SyracuseMISSOURI42024
FultonARKANSAS31973
Sulphur LickKENTUCKY31979
HustonvilleKENTUCKY31968
HudsonKENTUCKY31974
Clementine 2MISSOURI32007
EugeneMISSOURI32025
Silver PtTENNESSEE31976
McbrayerKENTUCKY22003
GlencoeKENTUCKY21993
SwedenMISSOURI22013
HandleyMISSOURI22022
HaydenMISSOURI22025
WilliamsvillMISSOURI21994
BarksMISSOURI22006
MarshfieldMISSOURI22008
Osage BeachMISSOURI22023
Indian MoundTENNESSEE21996
CollinwoodTENNESSEE21986
GlenTENNESSEE21976
HillsboroALABAMA11980
LurtonARKANSAS11992
ZionARKANSAS11986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.