BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bewick's Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Bewick's Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bewick's Wren in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Bewick's Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 673% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±408.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+673%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±408.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bewick's Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 673% by 2030 — from 0.05 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±408.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.000.85
20270.400.000.85
20280.400.000.85
20290.400.000.86
20300.400.000.86

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Bewick's Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO52021
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO41975
Kermit 2TEXAS42018
Mica ButteCOLORADO21978
HobbsNEW-MEXICO21995
LoganNEW-MEXICO22008
RankinTEXAS22025
PostTEXAS22019
Frankel CityTEXAS22017
PecosTEXAS22017
CheyenneWYOMING21994
TrincheraCOLORADO12021
VillegreenCOLORADO12024
Cone MtnCOLORADO12024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11997
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12002
ArsenalCOLORADO11992
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12025
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12021
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11977
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12022
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO12015
FeltOKLAHOMA12023
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.