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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bell's Vireo In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-40%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bell's Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Bell's Vireo In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-83%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 83% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.13
20270.020.000.13
20280.020.000.12
20290.020.000.12
20300.020.000.12

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22025
BlodgettMISSOURI22025
EudoraARKANSAS11975
HughesARKANSAS11975
West TylerARKANSAS11980
HarrisburgARKANSAS11997
AugustaARKANSAS11980
SaffellARKANSAS12014
MaynardARKANSAS12011
UlmARKANSAS11986
Augusta 2ARKANSAS12010
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.