BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Bell's Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-88%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bell's Vireo has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Bell's Vireo In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 79% by 2029 — from 0.26 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.88
20260.090.000.87
20270.080.000.86
20280.070.000.84
20290.050.000.83

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BlancoOKLAHOMA132016
IndianolaOKLAHOMA102024
MatoyOKLAHOMA82000
Coal HillARKANSAS32012
Poyen 2ARKANSAS32015
McalesterOKLAHOMA31991
StampsARKANSAS21971
AshdownARKANSAS21995
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS22024
PhillipsOKLAHOMA22008
SandbluffOKLAHOMA21993
Locust BayouARKANSAS12008
HopeARKANSAS12022
CrowsARKANSAS11971
StarkARKANSAS12000
MassardARKANSAS12018
SimsARKANSAS12011
Big CedarOKLAHOMA11996
CanadianOKLAHOMA12016
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA12021
BethelOKLAHOMA12024
PocolaOKLAHOMA12016
AthensTEXAS11992
ChandlerTEXAS11995
SmyrnaTEXAS11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.