BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bell's Vireo In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Bell's Vireo in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bell's Vireo in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Bell's Vireo In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bell's Vireo in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.480.001.5
20260.470.001.5
20270.470.001.5
20280.470.001.5
20290.460.001.5

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Bell's Vireo in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlbanyTEXAS242024
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA82024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA82024
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA52006
SeldenTEXAS42023
NobleOKLAHOMA32022
GrafordTEXAS32019
ComancheTEXAS32024
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA22018
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
BeggsOKLAHOMA22021
DuncanOKLAHOMA22024
OlaTEXAS21968
Glen RoseTEXAS22024
WeatherfordTEXAS22024
DikeTEXAS22016
SadlerTEXAS22024
Thornton 2TEXAS22010
BriteTEXAS22022
Whit Mtn.TEXAS22019
LocoOKLAHOMA11985
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12021
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11975
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.